AGP Executive Report

Red Sea & Yemen Escalation: Saudi-backed forces launched a major offensive in Yemen, with the U.S. reportedly sharing more than 200 Ansarallah target details while holding off on direct strikes, as Aramco warns rebuilding global oil stocks could take years. Horn-of-Africa War Spillover: Ethiopia’s renewed fighting—starting with Tigrayan forces seizing airports—raises fears of a wider regional conflict, with Ethiopia’s army accusing Eritrea (and implying support from Sudan and Egypt) and Doctors Without Borders reporting a surge in wounded. Somalia–Ethiopia Sea Access Clarified: Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s “no objection” remarks are framed as commercial access under the Ankara framework, not a concession on Ethiopian coastal sovereignty. Somalia–UAE Port Rift: An OpEd argues Somalia’s annulment of UAE deals on Berbera, Bosaso, and Kismayo reflects a deeper break in Abu Dhabi’s port-and-proxy strategy across the Horn. Information Warfare Watch: A media analytics investigation describes an AI-generated “Red Sea Axis” influence network aimed at shaping perceptions across the Horn. Humanitarian Data Gap: A UN Women-linked critique says crisis planning still undercounts women’s needs, leading to dangerous site placement and missed safety risks.

Ethiopia War Spillover: Explosions and drone strikes in Addis Ababa and renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia are raising fears that the Tigray conflict could spread into Amhara, Oromia, Afar and beyond, with the UN warning of a humanitarian disaster. Regional Backing Claims: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting TPLF fighters as rebels seize strategic towns, while those countries deny involvement—fueling worries of a wider Horn-of-Africa confrontation. Somalia–Ethiopia Sea Access Clarified: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said Somalia does not object to Ethiopia getting sea access, but the framing stresses commercial use through Somali ports under Somali sovereign authority, not any new Ethiopian territorial or military foothold. Red Sea Security Shock: The Houthi advance around Bab el-Mandeb—taking Mocha and nearby areas—could disrupt shipping and escalate tensions for Red Sea states, with knock-on risks for Somalia and Sudan. UAE–Somalia Port Politics (OpEd): A new analysis argues Abu Dhabi’s port and security footprint across Berbera, Bosaso and Kismayo has collided with Somalia’s federal annulments, highlighting a constitutional gap between federal deals and regional control. Information Warfare Watch: A media analytics investigation describes a “Red Sea Axis” network using AI-generated content to shape perceptions across the Horn, including Somalia and Ethiopia.

Ethiopia Conflict Escalation: Explosions and suspected drone strikes in Addis Ababa signal how fast renewed fighting is spreading, with clashes in northern regions killing civilians and pushing toward places like Lalibela. Regional Spillover Risk: Multiple reports warn Ethiopia’s war could entangle Eritrea, Sudan, and Red Sea dynamics as tensions rise and humanitarian fears grow. Tigray Offensive & Airport Seizures: Tigrayan forces and allied groups reportedly seized strategic airports after a fragile peace frayed, while Ethiopia’s military accuses outside backers. External Interference Claims: Ethiopia’s army chief alleges Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt support TPLF, as Egypt and others deny involvement. Red Sea Security Pressure: The Houthis’ takeover of parts of the Red Sea corridor—including Mocha and nearby islands—raises stakes for shipping and could worsen instability in Somalia and Sudan. Somaliland-UAE Political Friction: An OpEd revisits Somalia’s annulment of UAE port and security deals affecting Berbera, Bosaso, and Kismayo, arguing federalism left a constitutional gap and calling for a parliamentary concession framework and audits. AI Disinformation Watch: A media analytics investigation describes a “Red Sea Axis” network using AI-generated content to shape perceptions across the Horn. Somalia–Somaliland Contact Rumors: Unconfirmed claims of a private meeting in New York highlight limits of Mogadishu’s authority and the hardening of Somaliland’s position.

Horn of Africa Flashpoint: Explosions and suspected drone strikes in Addis Ababa signal how Ethiopia’s renewed northward fighting is spreading, with clashes between federal forces and Tigrayan-aligned rebels killing civilians and raising UN warnings of a humanitarian disaster. Regional Spillover Risk: Multiple reports frame the conflict as a wider Horn-of-Africa chain reaction—Ethiopia’s tensions with Eritrea, Sudan’s ongoing civil war, and Iran-aligned Houthi advances along the Red Sea—raising fears the fighting could pull in neighbors. Claims of External Backing: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting TPLF-linked forces, while denials grow as strategic towns in Afar are reported captured. Red Sea Security Shock: Houthi control of areas near Bab el-Mandeb is described as a direct threat to shipping and a potential accelerant for instability affecting Egypt, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea. Somaliland-Tech Angle on Info Warfare: A media analytics investigation highlights an AI-generated “Red Sea Axis” network pushing narratives across the Horn, including Somalia and the UAE—an early warning for digital conflict. Somalia–UAE–Somaliland Politics: An OpEd argues Somalia’s annulment of UAE port and security deals exposes a deeper rupture over influence at Berbera, Bosaso and Kismayo, with Somaliland positioned inside a high-stakes maritime contest.

UAE–Somalia Rift and Port Politics: Somalia’s federal government annulled Jan. 12 cooperation deals with the UAE covering Berbera (Somaliland), Bosaso (Puntland) and Kismayo (Jubaland), plus security pacts—sparking a debate over how Abu Dhabi built influence along the Horn through ports, air access, and shifting loyalties. Red Sea Security Spillover: Analysts warn the Houthi advance around Bab el-Mandeb—taking Mocha, Mayyun, and nearby archipelagos—could disrupt major shipping routes and intensify pressure on Red Sea states, with knock-on effects for Somalia and Sudan. Ethiopia’s North War Widens: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing TPLF-linked forces after renewed fighting and the reported capture of strategic towns and airports, while Egypt denied interference and framed its policy as strict non-intervention. Nile Power and Regional Tensions: Ethiopia inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, but the political fallout continues as Nile strategy feeds wider regional alignment and counter-fronts. Digital Conflict in the Horn: A media analytics investigation describes an AI-generated “Red Sea Axis” network aimed at shaping perceptions across Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, the UAE and the wider region. Somaliland–Somalia Contact Rumors: Unconfirmed reports of a private meeting between Somalia’s foreign minister and Somaliland President Irro in New York highlight the limits of Mogadishu’s authority and the hardening of Somaliland’s stance.

Horn of Africa Flashpoint: Ethiopia’s northern war is widening after TPLF forces seized strategic towns and airports, with the federal army accusing Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing the rebels—claims met with denials as MSF reports a surge in wounded. Regional Power Play: Egypt rejects accusations of interference, insisting on sovereignty and non-interference, but analysts argue Cairo’s Nile-driven strategy has shifted toward regional isolation and indirect destabilisation. Red Sea Shipping Risk: Houthi advances around Mocha, Mayyun, and the Zuqar/Hanish archipelago threaten a key global trade route near Bab el-Mandeb, raising security and economic pressure on Egypt, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea. Digital Conflict Watch: A media analytics investigation highlights an AI-generated “Red Sea Axis” network spreading influence across Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and the UAE—raising alarms for information warfare. Somaliland–Somalia Diplomacy Rumor: Unconfirmed reports of a private Somaliland–Somalia meeting in New York spotlight limits in Mogadishu’s authority and the hardening of Somaliland’s position.

Regional Security & Diplomacy: Egypt rejected Ethiopia’s claims of interference, insisting on sovereignty and non-interference—while analysts point to a wider pattern of pressure around the Nile and the Red Sea since 2024. Renewed Ethiopia Conflict: Ethiopia says Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt are backing Tigray-linked forces as fighting escalates, with TPLF fighters reportedly seizing strategic towns and airports, raising fears of a broader regional war. Horn of Africa Power Shifts: Multiple pieces argue the crisis is no longer just Ethiopia vs. Tigray, but a layered counter-front shaped by Nile politics, Red Sea access disputes, and shifting alliances. Red Sea Shipping Risk: The Houthi expansion around Mocha and Bab al-Mandeb is framed as a direct threat to global trade routes, with knock-on security and economic impacts for Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Egypt. Somaliland-Relevant Science & Climate: A UK-backed ARCAN programme evaluation highlights efforts to strengthen groundwater and water resilience in the Horn, including Somaliland, by pairing renewable energy with water management. Digital Conflict Watch: A report on “Red Sea Axis” influence operations warns how AI-generated disinformation campaigns are being scaled across the Horn.

Horn of Africa Conflict Signals: Ethiopia’s northern war is flaring again after seven armed groups formed the “Ethiopian People’s Forces Alliance for Survival,” with TPLF forces reportedly seizing three regional airports and fighting spreading into Afar and Amhara. Regional Spillover: Ethiopia’s army chief says Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt are backing the rebels, while denials grow as the risk of a wider regional conflict rises. Red Sea Security & Trade: Houthi advances around Mocha and nearby islands are reshaping the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, with major implications for shipping and for countries including Djibouti, Ethiopia and Eritrea. Nile & Infrastructure Politics: Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam inauguration is framed as both a technical milestone and a political move that keeps Nile tensions with Egypt in focus. Digital Conflict: A new look at the “Red Sea Axis” describes AI-generated influence operations targeting perceptions across the Horn. Water Resilience Tech: A UK-backed ARCAN programme evaluation highlights work to strengthen groundwater resilience in the Horn, including Somaliland, through climate and water-focused support.

Tigray Conflict Escalates: A drone strike on a northwestern Tigray aid truck was followed by Tigrayan forces seizing airports in Mekelle, Aksum and Shire, shattering the Pretoria peace pact and spreading fighting into Afar and Amhara; Ethiopia says TPLF launched an offensive, while Tigray cites federal attacks using drones and artillery, and MSF reports a surge in wounded. Regional Spillover Claims: Ethiopia’s army chief alleges Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt are backing TPLF, while those claims are denied as the conflict widens and external support accusations intensify. Red Sea Shipping Risk: Houthi control expands around Mocha, Mayyun Island, and the Zuqar and Hanish archipelago near Bab el-Mandeb, threatening a chokepoint that historically carries about 12% of global trade and raising security stakes for Egypt, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea. Digital Conflict in the Horn: A media analytics investigation highlights an AI-generated “Red Sea Axis” information operation aimed at shaping perceptions across Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and the UAE. Water Resilience Push: A UK-backed ARCAN programme evaluation points to new groundwork for groundwater resilience in the Horn, linking renewable energy and water management support across Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia and Somaliland.

Red Sea Security: Houthis have taken over Yemen’s Mocha port, Mayyun Island, and the Zuqar and Hanish archipelago near Bab el-Mandeb, a chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and carrying about 12% of global trade—raising risks for Egypt, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea and potentially spilling into Somalia and Sudan. Horn Conflict & Regional Spillover: Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia has shattered the 2022 Pretoria peace deal, with TPLF fighters capturing towns like Erebti; Ethiopia’s army chief alleges Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt are backing rebels, while denials grow as the crisis widens. Nile & Mega-Projects: Ethiopia inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, framing it as a sovereignty milestone even as Egypt and donors remain wary—while the broader Nile politics continues to shape regional alignments. Digital Conflict: A media analytics investigation describes a “Red Sea Axis” network using AI-generated content to influence perceptions across the Horn, showing how cheap information warfare can scale. Water Resilience (Somaliland-relevant): A UK-backed ARCAN programme evaluation highlights funding aimed at groundwater resilience and water management across the Horn, including Somaliland. Tech/Climate Note: A UK climate initiative is also laying groundwork for water resilience in the Horn of Africa.

Red Sea & Ports Geopolitics: A new wave of analysis argues that UAE and Turkey-backed port strategies are tightening a “sub-imperial” grip on Red Sea access, with DP World-style influence and proxy dynamics raising the risk of instability across the Horn. Ethiopia–Nile & Regional Pressure: Ethiopia inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, while separate reporting links the GERD dispute to wider regional threat perceptions involving Egypt, Sudan, and Eritrea. Northern Ethiopia Conflict: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of backing Tigray-linked fighters as renewed fighting shatters the 2022 Pretoria peace deal, with a broader opposition alliance now forming. AI Disinformation in the Horn: A media analytics investigation describes a “Red Sea Axis” network using AI-generated content to shape perceptions across Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, and the UAE. Djibouti Refugee Crisis: The UN warns Djibouti could see a sharp rise in Yemeni arrivals as Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb intensify. Somaliland Science Angle (Conservation): Cheetah conservationist Dr Laurie Marker was nominated for the 2027 Indianapolis Prize, highlighting high-tech genome banking and a Somaliland rescue centre tackling black-market cub trafficking.

Red Sea Port Politics & War: A new analysis argues Türkiye and the UAE are trying to restore external control over African ports, with conflict and instability feeding extractivism and underdevelopment. Ethiopia–Tigray Escalation: Ethiopia says renewed fighting has shattered the 2022 Pretoria peace deal, while its army chief alleges Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt back TPLF—claims Eritrea denies. Nile Mega-project & Regional Tensions: Ethiopia inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, framed as a sovereignty milestone, even as Egypt’s opposition remains a driver of wider Nile politics. AI Disinformation in the Horn: A media analytics investigation describes a “Red Sea Axis” network using AI-written content to shape perceptions across the Horn, raising alarms for digital conflict. Somaliland Conservation Tech: Dr Laurie Marker’s cheetah work—genome banking and a Somaliland rescue centre tackling black-market cub trafficking—earned a nomination for the 2027 Indianapolis Prize. Water Resilience Funding: A UK-backed ARCAN/World Bank-linked programme is set to strengthen groundwater resilience across the Horn, including Somaliland.

Hydropower & Water Politics: Ethiopia inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, using its near-finished status to push a strong political message as regional donors and Egypt’s objections linger. Regional Conflict Spillover: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing TPLF-linked rebels after renewed fighting and the capture of strategic towns, raising fears of a wider Horn conflict. Digital Security: A new report warns of an AI-generated “Red Sea Axis” disinformation network targeting perceptions across the Horn, showing how cheap automated influence operations can scale fast. Somaliland Tech & Security: Somaliland President Irro says Israel-backed cooperation could start by year-end, beginning with training for water engineers and desalination plans for Berbera, with possible security sector talks next. Water Resilience Funding: A UK-backed climate programme evaluation highlights new support for groundwater resilience in the Horn, linking renewable energy and water management for arid regions including Somaliland. Humanitarian Pressure at the Red Sea: Djibouti faces a growing Yemeni refugee influx as Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb threaten shipping and worsen displacement risks. Conservation Science: Dr Laurie Marker’s cheetah work, including a genome bank and Somaliland rescue efforts, earned a major conservation nomination.

Ethiopia–Tigray Conflict Spillover: Ethiopia’s army chief says Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt are backing Tigray rebels as fighters seize strategic towns in renewed northern fighting, raising fears of a wider regional clash. Red Sea Security & Djibouti Refugees: With Houthi forces taking Yemen’s Mokha and Mayun Island near Bab el-Mandeb, Djibouti faces a fast-growing Yemeni refugee surge, while shipping risk remains a major concern for the Horn. Somaliland Water + Israel Ties: Somaliland President Abdirahman Irro says Israel-backed work will start on Berbera seawater desalination, and security cooperation could begin before year-end after Israel’s December recognition. Water Resilience Funding: A UK-backed climate programme is laying groundwork for groundwater resilience across the Horn, linking renewable energy and water management support. Conservation Tech & Somaliland: Conservationist Dr Laurie Marker is nominated for a major animal conservation prize, highlighting her high-tech cheetah genome bank and Somaliland rescue efforts against black-market cub trafficking. Agri Innovation in the Region: Rwanda’s new agriculture venture studio is opening applications with up to $150,000 support, backed by a foundation that also operates in Somaliland.

Ethiopia–Horn Security: Ethiopia’s army chief, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing TPLF-linked rebels as fighters captured the strategic town of Erebti in Afar, while aid groups reported a surge in wounded—raising fears of a wider regional spillover. Red Sea Tech & Trade Risk: New reporting highlights how Houthi control of Yemeni ports and islands near Bab el-Mandeb could disrupt shipping that carries about 12% of global trade, with knock-on effects for Djibouti, Ethiopia and Eritrea. Somaliland Water & Security: Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi says Israel’s recognition will translate into cooperation by year-end, starting with training for 50 Somaliland water engineers and possible security sector collaboration, including around Berbera’s strategic role. Climate Resilience (Horn): A UK-backed ARCAN/CIWA evaluation points to funding and programs aimed at boosting water resilience across arid Horn regions, including Somaliland. Conservation Science: Dr Laurie Marker, whose Cheetah Conservation Fund works in Somaliland against black-market cub trafficking, was nominated for the 2027 Indianapolis Prize. Disaster Preparedness (Global): Taiwan launched the World Alliance for Disaster Management (WADM), with Somaliland among the founding group, aiming for joint training and information sharing.

Red Sea Security: The Houthis have seized Mocha and key islands near Bab al-Mandeb (including Mayyun/Perim), threatening shipping that carries about 12% of global trade and raising risks for Egypt, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea. Somaliland Water & Israel Ties: Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi says Israel-backed work will start on Berbera seawater desalination after training 50 Somaliland water engineers, with possible security cooperation later this year. Horn-of-Africa Instability: Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia has shattered the 2022 Pretoria peace pact, with the TPLF mobilizing alongside other opposition groups against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Climate & Water Resilience: A UK-funded ARCAN programme evaluation highlights efforts to strengthen groundwater resilience in the Horn of Africa, including Somaliland, alongside renewable energy and water management support. Conservation Tech: Dr Laurie Marker, whose Cheetah Conservation Fund runs a Somaliland rescue centre and a cheetah genome bank, has been nominated for the 2027 Indianapolis Prize. Disaster Preparedness: Taiwan launched the World Alliance for Disaster Management, with Somaliland among the founding group, aiming for joint training, exercises, and early warning.